Odds I'd Pass On

NASA puts the odds of the space shuttle Columbia being involved in some sort of catastrophe that kills everyone on board at 1 in 100, according to today's New York Times. If you're an astronaut, those aren't good odds. They're pretty close to the odds that a person who attempts suicide will succeed, which are themselves strikingly close to the odds that Britney Spears's baby will weigh less than 5 lbs. at birth.

With a new realism born of disaster, NASA says that the risk of catastrophic failure during the space shuttle Discovery's mission is about 1 in 100, more than twice as great as an upbeat estimate issued before the loss of the Columbia in 2003.

While the space agency is still working on an official estimate, a spokesman, Allard Beutel, said, it has devised a rough one that will be refined by insights from the investigation of the Columbia disaster, in which seven astronauts died as the ship broke up during its re-entry into Earth's atmosphere.

The rise in estimated danger, Mr. Beutel said, came about "because we have a better understanding" of the craft's workings and limitations. He emphasized, though, that "it's a statistical probability, as opposed to what is going to happen."

Well, yes, that would be the definition of statistical probability. But at those odds, there's a very good chance that the corner-cutting (note: not cost-cutting) space agency's acronym will again stand for "needs another seven astronauts."