To the People

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or TO THE PEOPLE.

Friday, November 03, 2006

Senate Nail-Biting

It's not looking good for Republicans. They're going down quicker than Rosie ODonnell on a chocolate covered hot dog. It would take a miracle for them to keep the house (a good Washington Post overview finds that 11 GOP seats are leaning Democrat and 21 GOP seats are too close to call), and they're holding on by the seat of their pants in the Senate. Democrats have comfortable leads in the only two Senate seats Republicans had a chance of taking from them - New Jersey and Maryland. And they seem to have a lock on taking Republican seats in Montana, Rhode Island, Pennslvania, and Ohio (although Senator Burns does seem to be making a surprising come back, but it's probably too little too late). Bob "hot daughter" Corker has clearly pulled ahead in Tennessee, which means everything could come down to Virginia and Missouri, where Democrats have very slight leads. Put another way, Democrats have to beat back Burns' come-back in Montana and win two of the three races in Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri. There is going to be some serious nail-biting on Election Day. Even the Arizona Senate seat is in play. (Interestingly, the Arizona Libertarian Senate candidate is polling almost 4%).

Stuart Rothenberg is predicting a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats in the House (they only need 16 to take control) and 5 to 7 in the Senate (they need 6 to take control). Roll Call has an excellant map overviewing all the close races around the country.

From National Review Online:

Republican Democrat Poll
MTBurns: 46%Tester: 50%Rasmussen NEW 11/02
NJKean: 43%Menendez: 48%Rasmussen NEW 11/02
MDSteele: 43%Cardin: 49%Baltimore Sun 11/02
VAAllen: 44%Webb: 45%Zogby 11/02
TNCorker: 53%Ford: 43%Zogby 11/02
RIChafee: 39%Whitehouse: 53%Zogby 11/02
PASantorum: 40%Casey: 48%Zogby 11/02
OHDeWine: 42%Brown: 49%Zogby 11/02
MOTalent: 43%McCaskill: 46%Zogby 11/02