Something to Keep in Mind

When reading the media reports "detailing" the size of the marijuana crops across the nation. Via NORML, originally from a column in the Burlington Free Press outlining the specifics of the cannabis crop in Vermont based on the recent Gettman report [emphasis mine].

If you buy into Jon Gettman's numbers -- and the guy has a Ph.D. -- our second most valuable cash crop is marijuana.

Gettman estimates that Vermont's ganja was worth $29 million this year, ranking us 39th among the states. Considering that we're right behind Nebraska and just ahead of Utah by Gettman's calculations, we can extrapolate that our per-square-foot marijuana value is colossal. Nebraska and Utah are, like, real states. Big ones.

[snip]

If he's correct, and they successfully harvested 18,063 pounds of pot in Vermont this year, that's about 2.1 ounces for every man, woman and child in the state -- enough to stay stoned until Town Meeting if used judiciously.

[snip]

How realistic his statistics are is open to discussion because most marijuana growers don't advertise in pick-your-own publications, nor do they report their acreage to agricultural census takers or apply for U.S. Department of Agriculture disaster relief funds when drought ravages the crop or a new imported beetle chews its way through the sticks and stems and sinsemillas.

That last emphasized bit is obvious when it's read, but those variables can be missed/forgotten in the media hype surrounding crop statistics. I've found myself thinking more in the last week about how reliable any estimation can be, for size and/or value of the crop. Contemplate how much of the estimated value of the estimated crop size can be attributed to the risk associated with the illegal status of the weed. It becomes even trickier to attempt to extrapolate from the data what the effects of legalization would be on the value of the domestic marijuana crop (as Jacob Sullum does in a post chock full of interesting stuff). It leads to the question, (which Sullum addresses in his must-read post) how much would the feds make from regulating marijuana? That question then takes one to other places, but I'm rambling already and haven't thought about it enough.

The writer of the above column, Ed Shamy, also erred with his math and later owned up to it. A reminder of another reason to be cautious when reading any type of analysis that involves numbers and odd mathematical symbols like + * or /.

What I should have done was divide the Vermont population INTO the ounces. Having done that now, I regret to inform each of you that the 2006 marijuana crop yielded only 0.47 ounces for every man, woman and child in the state. I apologize for the cutback.