To the People

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or TO THE PEOPLE.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Mike Huckabee?

I'm not in a position to criticize bloggers for saying outrageous things. Turns out, if you go back through the archives, I've written some pretty awful things. Still though, I have the refuge of knowing that rarely if ever, am I sober when posting. So that's my excuse -- What's Jim Henley's?
Meanwhile, let me be the first to predict that Mike Huckabee will be the Republican nominee for President - or close to the first.
Humm...How's that?
He scores high on likeability. He’s conservative as such things are defined today, with a longer track record of support for Christian Right issues than the current front-runners. The Mormon and the cross-dresser make spectacularly flawed candidates to “the base,” and I suspect that Fred Thompson, if he runs, will turn out to be too transparently stupid even for the GOP. The cat has already curled up on the bed of the McCain campaign. Tancredo and Brownback aren’t TV-friendly. The 26%ers despise Ron Paul.
That's just plain silly. Huckabee is a nobody candidate, with no support or name recognition nation-wide. Tancredo won't win because he is fucking nuts and everyone knows this. Brownback is a nobody with zero political skills (See the way he handled the immigration debacle in the Senate---In the worst possible way.) I'd say Ron Paul has a better shot at the nomination than Huckabee. Not that I think Ron Paul has a shot, but I'm saying that you could see a scenario like a 1964 possibly evolving. Huge odds against it, it won't happen, but at least a candidate like Paul has an opening. Same thing with Gingrich. If anyone has a shot at this thing besides the top three candidates (which I don't think is the case) it's gotta be Gingrich. Him or Thompson. My guess would be Gingrich. And I don't say that because I agree with Jim or the CW that Thompson is an empty suit -- I highly doubt he's any dumber than our average politician. I go with Gingrich because I don't think Thompson -- politically that is -- is ready for a presidential election...and I'm talking about the primaries here. The guy hasn't even formally announced and he's gone through three campaign managers. When he's questioned he has a look -- not of a moron -- but of a candidate who has never been prepared for a question. My guess -- he runs out of steam early.

Let me make one last point about something that annoys the fuck out of me. Giuliani can and most likely will be the Republican nominee for President. He is by far the strongest guy in the field for both the primary and the general election. How it's possible for the front runner, who has consistently been leading the rest of the field by 8-10 points for the past year, to be looked at not as the front runner is mind-boggling. Plain stupid. My opinion, and my opinion only, is that the case against Giuliani is being way overstated. Again politically. Please don't berate me about how he is going to be the next totalitarian President of our great country. Don't care about that. Right now I'm only concerned with who will win and who won't. And there is no reason he won't, barring a collapse of course, but the guy is a strong politician in every way. To act like his support will vanish once people learn about his stances on abortion, gun control, gay rights, etc. is foolish. People are worried about it and are talking about it. But his numbers stay steady and they only increase if McCain dies. And by dies, I actually mean dies. Have you seen the him lately? Yikes. As for the base; right now it's all about the wars. War on Terror and the Iraq War. Once you get past that, it's who can beat Hillary.

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