To the People

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Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Iowa Predictions

Romney 31%, Huckabee 26%, Thompson 15%, McCain 12%, Paul 10%, Giuliani 6%

Clinton 33%, Edwards 30%, Obama 28%, Biden/Richardson/Dodd 9%

I could give as many reasons for this outcome as I could for 3 others but you gotta' pick one if you're gonna' pick any. In short: I'm buying the Thompson bump noticed by Zogby, I don't see where Paul pulls the additional 5-7% needed to grab third, and the Democratic race is essentially a push in Iowa.

I think Hucakbee comes down 5 points tomorrow (or really -- later this morning, as I write this at 2am), and I think Thompson takes most of that, if not all of it. Rest of field remains largely unaffected. Big winner is this scenario is Romney. Knocks down Huckabee, keeps McCain in 4th.

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