To the People

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or TO THE PEOPLE.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire

I might do some live-blogging tonight if I can get off the bender that's prevented me from doing much blogging over the past few days. Or I might just order out for my hookers tonight and continue the bender while I blog. Who knows. Either way, I think the results could be surprising on the Republican side, and awful predictable on the Democratic side. Most likely result on the GOP side is: McCain 33%, Romney 27%, Huckabee 14%, Paul 13%, Giuliani 11%.......................................Thompson 2%.

Obama, Clinton, Edwards. The only question by how much Obama wins. By 8 points? More? If he takes a double-digit win in New Hampshire, you would think it spells the beginning of the end for Hillary. I don't think she gets out right away; but I find it hard to believe that she could stop the Obama wave.

I could easily see Paul grabbing 3rd -- the math makes it possible (unlike in Iowa where it was delusional to predict a 3rd for him) if he picks up a point or two of the undecided vote, and has another 3% of non-poll-predictive support. It's feasable. That scenario would give him 13-15% which would probably be enough to beat Huckabee. That being said he could finish below Giuliani in 5th. It's wide-open and impossible to predict. Latest polls from RCP here.

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