New Hampshire

I might do some live-blogging tonight if I can get off the bender that's prevented me from doing much blogging over the past few days. Or I might just order out for my hookers tonight and continue the bender while I blog. Who knows. Either way, I think the results could be surprising on the Republican side, and awful predictable on the Democratic side. Most likely result on the GOP side is: McCain 33%, Romney 27%, Huckabee 14%, Paul 13%, Giuliani 11%.......................................Thompson 2%.

Obama, Clinton, Edwards. The only question by how much Obama wins. By 8 points? More? If he takes a double-digit win in New Hampshire, you would think it spells the beginning of the end for Hillary. I don't think she gets out right away; but I find it hard to believe that she could stop the Obama wave.

I could easily see Paul grabbing 3rd -- the math makes it possible (unlike in Iowa where it was delusional to predict a 3rd for him) if he picks up a point or two of the undecided vote, and has another 3% of non-poll-predictive support. It's feasable. That scenario would give him 13-15% which would probably be enough to beat Huckabee. That being said he could finish below Giuliani in 5th. It's wide-open and impossible to predict. Latest polls from RCP here.