To the People

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Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Tuesday Begins

I'll be getting bitterly drunk tonight from our Baltimore Election Center -- which consists of a TV, two laptops, a pack of camel lights, a half-bottle of Jameson, and 12 Sam Adams, all in my living room --as we watch the results trickle in. Should be a fun night.

Where we stand as of 6:45 pm: Huckabee wins West Virginia. Read Dave 1 and Dave 2 (NRO and reason respectively) for how Ron Paul's people gave him the win.

All kinds of exit polling data coming out. You can pour through it here, as well as other places on the net. It looks pretty close with few big surprises. Huckabee is doing well, actually very well in the south. Better than I expected. McCain is doing well in the northeast, but not in his own state where it's a fairly close battle between him and Romney. Georgia looks to be close, should be interesting to see who pulls that out. Right now I'm thinking this will be a win tonight for Mccain, but not quite as big as some thought.

Here's some exit poll data for the Democrats from MyDD. Obama doing well in the south as well as Delaware and Connecticut.

I need a smoke. More later.

7:30: Georgia is called for Obama. Won huge, and did well with the white vote.

I was taking a closer look at the available Democratic exit polling data and it raised some question/thoughts. Clinton appears to be doing well in Oklahoma and Tennessee. Makes sense. She's getting the disgruntled white vote, just like she wanted when she played the race card. Here's what's interesting to me: Latino voters don't seem to be following the lead. New Mexico, California (a bit different than other southwest states), and Utah. Clinton is neck-to-neck with Obama in those states, if not losing. Where is the Hispanic vote going? Is it split between Obama and Clinton heavily? Is Obama actually getting the majority? If so, count that as a Clinton strategy that has failed miserably. This is comforting if it turns out to be true.

8:00: The more I read, the more I think we have 3 storylines coming out of tonight, all of them exciting from a purely political observer point of view. 1)Obama has a big night. 2) Huckabee rebounds as a legitimate player in the election. 3) Playing off #2 McCain suffers from a big Huckabee night....It's still early, but I think if the election results hint at the above points, the media will run with the storylines....Very interesting night ahead.

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