To the People

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Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Primary Blogging

I plan on covering the results -- or at least checking in a time or two -- of the primaries as they come in tonight.

My Predictions: Nothing. I can make no predictions. Other than John McCain manages to sweep the GOP primaries tonight. It's a brave call, I know. That's what I do, make the bold predictions that no one else is willing to make. As for the real primary tonight....

Question:So what happens on the Democratic side?

Answer: Who knows what's going to happen on the Democratic side, with Clinton losing her once huge leads in TX and OH, and now polls fluctuating, along with Obama experiencing his first real campaign "crisis", and some media cycles of negative coverage. Relatively speaking.

You're reading a guy who is willing to bet on everything from when my roommate will vomit for the first time of the evening to Ricky Hatton knocking out Floyd Mayweather in 7 rounds. That being said -- I wouldn't even put money down on either Obama or Hillary to come out as the winner tonight. It's especially difficult to predict a winner, because we can't know what either candidate needs to do to declare victory. Obviously if Clinton wins Ohio and Texas, it's gonna be tough to call her a loser on the night. This thing continues for awhile if that's the end result.

Obama's people said she needed to win by double-digits in both big states or else she is dead as of tonight. That seems like some serious spin to me. The way I see it, if she wins Ohio, which seems likely (but not by any means a guarantee), but loses a squeaker in Texas, she soldiers on. She finishes the night with some delegates in Ohio, some more serious street cred in her own party for winning a state that Democrats need to win in a general election, and another small victory in Rhode Island. I think she's positioned well, if that's the outcome, to continue this body-blow campaign all the way into the summer.

Of course, if Obama wins both OH and TX, it looks awful bleak for Clinton's chances. But this stuff is totally up the in the air and we should have some serious drama to look forward to tonight. That or just another awful draw where nothing really gets decided. Who knows.

Latest OH and TX polling data here and here, respectively. Lots of stuff on Obama, the Canadians and NAFTA here.

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