To the People

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Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Golden Boot Award

More World Cup handicapping. How about the top goal scorer prop?

Who I'm looking at:

-Tevez, Argentina 40-1

-Ronaldo, Portugal 18-1

-Rooney, England 10-1

-Donovan, US 100-1

-Eto, Cameroon 40-1

-Von Persie, Holland 18-1

Top goal scorer is an interesting wager for a couple reasons. Most importantly -- How do you value the potential for the player's team to go far in the tournament? Obviously the more minutes the player plays the better his odds of scoring more goals. But I think it's possible to place too much value on that variable. This award can be won in the group stage, sometimes even in just one game in the group stage.

Also it take a lot of luck, even for a quality finisher, to score 4-6 goals in this tournament. This makes me want to avoid any favorites (minus Rooney, who is my pick regardless of odds to win the award, and I think I'm getting the better end of the 10-1 odds listed) and look for more long-shot finishers who could get hot against a weak team or two in the group stage. I'm also not totally discounting the chances of their team to advance when calculating where to place my wagers.

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