To the People

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Monday, June 07, 2010

Thoughts on Group D

Germany 17/20
Australia 7/1
Ghana 9/2
Serbia 11/4

I don't have a great feel for this group and I think a case could be made for any of these teams to finish out on top. Should be a good slate of games.

There's a couple ways I could play this, but I think I'll go with Germany getting close to even odds. Serbia at more than 2.5-1 is an attractive bet as well given their stacked roster, and Ghana at 4.5-1 has its merits as well. The more I think about this group the more I want to stay away from it completely, but I'm a degenerate with a runaway gambling problem and it's hard to not lay the bet on Germany to win the group.

--Never bet against the Germans. They've made the quarterfinals of the World Cup every time since 1982. These guys know how to win.

--In a World Cup full of injuries the German's are no exception, losing their central midfielder and captain Michael Ballack. Big loss for sure, but if you had to pick a country that could best replace a tenacious, backbone-of-the-midfield-type-player, wouldn't Germany be that team? Schweinsteiger will assume Ballack's role in midfield and I don't think you lose much in that transition.

--They are as fundamentally sound as any team in the tournament, and that matters a lot in the World Cup. Teams have a tendency to play sloppy soccer due to a lack of playing time together and the energy that surrounds the Cup. Teams that do not make a lot of mistakes and do not give opportunities to other teams are always good bets to advance in the World Cup.

I haven't decided what my play will be here, but I think it's a good betting group that will be hard to avoid. Most likely bet will be Germany at 17/20.

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