McCain Fails To Get 80% of the Vote in IN and NC

That can't be the outcome the McCain camp was looking for in IN and NC when their candidate is supposed to be the GOP nominee, running virtually unopposed.

Primary Night in Middle America

7:50 -- I turn on the TV to see the breaking news that CNN has declared McCain the winner in Ohio and Vermont clinching the GOP nomination in with his delegate count unless Huckabee sends Chuck Norris out to the states to roundhouse-kick ballot counters. Zing! I like it, easy stuff. No wonder Huckabee uses that formula. Solid.

8:20 -- Ohio looks good for Clinton. Very early results in Texas look good for Obama.

Has anyone noticed how short Wolf Blitzer looks? It might be the giant pie charts he stands next to on that stage, or he might just be really short.

As always check out Dave Weigal at Hit&Run and Jim Geraghty at NRO. Also myDD.

8:30 -- From Jim Geraghty:

Hillary's Not Quitting, Not Now, Not Soon, Not For a While

Over in the Corner, Steven Spruiell breaks some major news: "A minute ago former DNC chair and professional Clinton-friend Terry McAuliffe indicated to reporters that Clinton intends to stay in the race until all the states (and Puerto Rico) have voted."

If McAuliffe isn't just boasting, this means Hillary stays in until at least June 7.

Awesome.

Seems about right.

9:05 -- McCain wins everything, officially clinches nomination. Huckabee to speak in 10-15 min. He is supposed to drop out of race tonight.

Fox News' Fred Barnes on the political implications of the economy. "Here's the thing -- If we have a recession the economy will be worse than it is now." Fair point Fred, fair point.

This Clinton Team conference call to complain about Texas irregularities sounds fun, doesn't it?

Very, very, early results in OH look good for Clinton. The media is trying to portray a Clinton Surge tonight. Will it turn out to be the truth?

9:50 -- Paul wins his primary battle according to Weigal; the only question remaining is by how large a margin.

McCain is speaking right now, with his creepy, but hitable wife behind him. He has the "1191" banner behind him, which I was surprised to find out was not his age but the delegate count needed, and reached tonight, to clinch the nomination. He does a bunch of war stuff, but I'll give him credit for hitting the Democrats on their squabbles over NAFTA and the global economy. I think I head free0markets mentioned too. Hey, you take what you can get.

Morning Update -- Hillary wins in Ohio and Texas, giving her enough fuel to continue the primary season into the summer. Personally I'm happy. Give me 2-3 months more of primaries. No way I was looking forward to the general election starting today. November is a long way off.

Primary Blogging

I plan on covering the results -- or at least checking in a time or two -- of the primaries as they come in tonight.

My Predictions: Nothing. I can make no predictions. Other than John McCain manages to sweep the GOP primaries tonight. It's a brave call, I know. That's what I do, make the bold predictions that no one else is willing to make. As for the real primary tonight....

Question:So what happens on the Democratic side?

Answer: Who knows what's going to happen on the Democratic side, with Clinton losing her once huge leads in TX and OH, and now polls fluctuating, along with Obama experiencing his first real campaign "crisis", and some media cycles of negative coverage. Relatively speaking.

You're reading a guy who is willing to bet on everything from when my roommate will vomit for the first time of the evening to Ricky Hatton knocking out Floyd Mayweather in 7 rounds. That being said -- I wouldn't even put money down on either Obama or Hillary to come out as the winner tonight. It's especially difficult to predict a winner, because we can't know what either candidate needs to do to declare victory. Obviously if Clinton wins Ohio and Texas, it's gonna be tough to call her a loser on the night. This thing continues for awhile if that's the end result.

Obama's people said she needed to win by double-digits in both big states or else she is dead as of tonight. That seems like some serious spin to me. The way I see it, if she wins Ohio, which seems likely (but not by any means a guarantee), but loses a squeaker in Texas, she soldiers on. She finishes the night with some delegates in Ohio, some more serious street cred in her own party for winning a state that Democrats need to win in a general election, and another small victory in Rhode Island. I think she's positioned well, if that's the outcome, to continue this body-blow campaign all the way into the summer.

Of course, if Obama wins both OH and TX, it looks awful bleak for Clinton's chances. But this stuff is totally up the in the air and we should have some serious drama to look forward to tonight. That or just another awful draw where nothing really gets decided. Who knows.

Latest OH and TX polling data here and here, respectively. Lots of stuff on Obama, the Canadians and NAFTA here.

Don't Pee On My Leg and Tell Me It's Raining

Obama's speech is nothing but an electability pitch. Well, that and tax increases. Always a great way to get elected. Vote for me, I'll raise your taxes!

Obama always talks about paying teachers more. Can someone explain to me how the POTUS controls teacher salaries? Obviously, it's a rhetorical question, but it's important; because he'll say something that will make you shake your head, then go of onto a rant about convincing us cynical folks who think he's full of shit, that he is in fact the messiah. The modern day Jesus Christ of American politics. First of all Obama, don't feel bad. I think all politicians are full of shit. You're no different. Second, I'm cynical because you make shit up. Not only do you make shit up, but you have the audacity to ask me to believe it in the very next line of the speech. Unreal.

This might not translate to any readers....But Obama reminds me of a local TV ad in Baltimore for a personal injury attorney--Barry Glazer. He has a line, directed at insurance companies, where he says "Don't pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining". To me that is Obama -- Don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining.

McCain wins CA. So does Hillary

No matter what happens in the coming months, I'm more convinced tonight than I was before that the GOP is fucked next year.

Potentially Last Update Before I Switch to Porn

Watching Hillary speak could almost put you in a place where you could imagine voting for John McCain. Almost. But it might just be the booze talking.

A big sign behind her reads Solutions for America. Doesn't that scare you? It scares me.

----

Yea!! Lou Dobbs is leading the way for CNN's coverage as of 11:18 pm. I needed a reason to stay with the coverage, and I just got it.

California results are trickling in....

Watching Romney

Mitt says -- "this campaign is going on" and "I will continue to spend a shit-load more of my own money no matter what chance I actually have to win"

OK..I made that last quote up; but more surprisingly he does really seem to think he has a shot at this thing. He's awfully worked up.

So lets suppose he wins a plurality of California, and the caucus in Colorado, it's still a poor showing; and that's the best case scenario tonight.

Ron Paul

has 18% with 3% reporting in Minnesota

Hispanics and Obama

So I might have spoken too soon about the Latino vote. Looks like Clinton is picking up huge percentages of the latino vote in New Jersey. And now Obama is doing well in Conn.......
51%-47%

I think my prediction of storylines is holding up fairly well.

Update: Clinton takes New Jersey. I heard in some districts over 80% of the the Latino vote went to her.

9:00 Primary Update

Karl Rove has a gig with Fox! Who saw that coming? I was thinking he would be a good fit on Current.

Rove: "Huckabee could win 6 states" Scary, but I'm not sure it's correct. He could win (or already has won) Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia, Arkansas. I count 4. I quickly count 4 though, so I may be missing one.

Random thought: XM Radio's Potus '08 channel does some pretty good coverage. They also offer some decent programming outside of voting days. If you have XM, check them out.

Georgia is looking close, but Huckabee is out front by about 4 points and it looks good for him.

Missouri is a must win for Romney, and by some accounts exit polls show him down slightly to McCain. I'm hardly saying anything new, but Romney must pull a victory in Missouri and a victory in California to stay relevant in this race.

I keep switching to CNN in hopes to see Anderson Cooper's -- I'm sorry, AC's floating pie charts.

Actual results so far are pretty standard. Drudge has them up if you're curious.

Super Tuesday Begins

I'll be getting bitterly drunk tonight from our Baltimore Election Center -- which consists of a TV, two laptops, a pack of camel lights, a half-bottle of Jameson, and 12 Sam Adams, all in my living room --as we watch the results trickle in. Should be a fun night.

Where we stand as of 6:45 pm: Huckabee wins West Virginia. Read Dave 1 and Dave 2 (NRO and reason respectively) for how Ron Paul's people gave him the win.

All kinds of exit polling data coming out. You can pour through it here, as well as other places on the net. It looks pretty close with few big surprises. Huckabee is doing well, actually very well in the south. Better than I expected. McCain is doing well in the northeast, but not in his own state where it's a fairly close battle between him and Romney. Georgia looks to be close, should be interesting to see who pulls that out. Right now I'm thinking this will be a win tonight for Mccain, but not quite as big as some thought.

Here's some exit poll data for the Democrats from MyDD. Obama doing well in the south as well as Delaware and Connecticut.

I need a smoke. More later.

7:30: Georgia is called for Obama. Won huge, and did well with the white vote.

I was taking a closer look at the available Democratic exit polling data and it raised some question/thoughts. Clinton appears to be doing well in Oklahoma and Tennessee. Makes sense. She's getting the disgruntled white vote, just like she wanted when she played the race card. Here's what's interesting to me: Latino voters don't seem to be following the lead. New Mexico, California (a bit different than other southwest states), and Utah. Clinton is neck-to-neck with Obama in those states, if not losing. Where is the Hispanic vote going? Is it split between Obama and Clinton heavily? Is Obama actually getting the majority? If so, count that as a Clinton strategy that has failed miserably. This is comforting if it turns out to be true.

8:00: The more I read, the more I think we have 3 storylines coming out of tonight, all of them exciting from a purely political observer point of view. 1)Obama has a big night. 2) Huckabee rebounds as a legitimate player in the election. 3) Playing off #2 McCain suffers from a big Huckabee night....It's still early, but I think if the election results hint at the above points, the media will run with the storylines....Very interesting night ahead.

Super Tuesday

Unless there're a few dozen states out west that I'm forgetting about -- like a Mittville or Romneia -- it's shaping up to be one hell of a boring, yet slit-your-wrists-at-the-end-when-you-realize-who-the-3-possibilities-for President-are kind of night.

Probably the victory for McCain (unless Romney plans on spending another $10 million or so just to see if McCain drops out before the end. And by drop out I mean dies. Have you seen the guy?), and more of the same antler-locking on the Democratic side.

All the latest polls here. Don't forget reason's Stupor Tuesday event at their offices if you happen to be in DC, and I'll leave you with an upbeat jingle to start your day with.

Florida

Tight race, McCain has a 9,000 vote lead over Romney as of 8:25. The evangelical panhandle hasn't reported yet...I would think that would benefit Romney, rather than McCain as Mitt has been doing well according to exit polling, with FL evangelicals.

If McCain does win, I think this outlook from David Freddeso makes sense.

FOX NEWS BLOGITICS!!!!! Don't ask me about my fascination with this segment, but I just love it.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE: All the major media outlets are calling it for McCain making him the undisputed front-runner for the nomination. If there is anything for libertarians who called the GOP home to take solace in, is the fact that now even conservatives have been pushed out of the tent. Where did Rush Limbaugh's power go? Or National Review? So I'm not sure who makes up the Republican coalition anymore, but as of right now, I'm confident that it is no one that I'd like to have a drink with....

And it looks like Rudy is getting out tonight...Probably backing McCain tomorrow.

Quote of the night from Megan Something-or-other on Fox: "McCain won both men and women, and that will usually do it."

Primary Saturday

It's a full Saturday -- SC Primary, Nevada caucuses, and Maryland Terrapin BBall plays UNC down in Chapel Hill. So quickly I'll do some of my top-notch reporting where I repeat what I see on TV and read on the real blogs. I'll be checking in after the SC results start trickling in and MD pulls the upset of the year and beats #1 UNC.

---Ron Paul is pulling 12% in a dead heat for 2nd in Nevada with McCain and Huckabee. Romney's been declared the winner with 56% so far.

---Not much to say about the Democratic race. God knows how long it will take for the results to start coming out from that ridiculous process...

---Amusing to see a caucus in Caesers Palace, with guys in cook hats sitting in the crowd.

---Jim Geraghty reports that early exit polls show a tight race in SC between Huckabee and McCain.

UPDATE: Who cares about any of my election '08 predictions, at least my Maryland prediction proved to be correct. 18 point dogs on the road against the #1 Tarheels and pull out a huge victory. Huge.

As for Nevada and SC...It's still close, but it looks like Paul is going to grab a 2nd in Nevada. Should provide his campaign with a boost. Clinton wins, hispanics pour to Clinton. That's a question for Obama -- Will hispanics vote for Obama?

7:05 Exit polls in SC show McCain with the lead over Huckabee 32-27. Still too early to call. Romney and Thompson fighting over 3rd

Michigan Primary

Looks like Mitt takes it, which as they say.....Continues to keep the race wide open. On the Democratic side, Uncommitted is staging a strong showing against Clinton. I'd keep a close eye on Uncommitted come Nevada.

Huckabe's speech ('cause it's important to really hear what this guy says)---Huckabee reminds us that he won Iowa. Then goes on to declare a win in South Carolina. "Leadership that comes right from the earth"...? Speaking about himself. I'd provide context, but I don't think there was any...

"We need to remind people that families raise children better than the government does." I think he meant to follow it up with --- "After the kids leave the nest is where the government takes over."

Well this is fantastically honest stuff -- "It's time the government isn't centered so much in Washington, but in the small towns across America."

OK, we get it, you need to win in South Carolina. And Mitt has more money than you. Whatever. Get over it.

I'm going to make a prediction about South Carolina based upon 4 years spent in the coastal region of the state. Huckabee doesn't do as well as he hopes. Pundits generalize the evangelical/protestant vote in the South, but it isn't always that simple. South Carolina has its share of southern baptist, but it's not like other places, i.e. Iowa. You still have a healthy population of waspy Episcopalian types that don't match up with Huck.

Romney--Whoa. I think he just mentioned George Herbert Walker Bush twice. And said that he's gotten "inspiration" from Reagan and George Herbert Walker Bush. Odd stuff.

UPDATE: To the People needs to get quoted on Fox News Channel's "Blogitics". Or otherwise known last week as, "Blog Buzz". You know, mointoring what the blogs are saying, and all that. I could see it now --"Time to see what the blogs are saying. To the People says:

"9:01 -- Battle for 4th -- Paul 8.4%, Giuliani 9.2%. Huckabee is tough to watch on TV. "We are going to take America up; not down." Give me a break. He makes me want to hurl the whiskey bottle at my TV set...if only I didn't value the whiskey so much.

And be sure to check out their bestiality and armed women tags while your there!"

Ah...Oh well, they're dreams, we can all have them.

Democrats Violate the Sunday Morning Relaxation Rule and Debate; No One Watches Them

I can't imagine that anyone other than Beltway insiders, who are used to tuning into the Sunday morning tv spin, and Iowans watched this morning's Democratic debate in Iowa.

My only involvement in the political process today was to read this tidbit in the New Yorker over a martini and dinner at the bar at Buck's.

At this preposterously early date in the 2004 election cycle, the candidates for the Democratic Presidential nomination had participated in exactly one “debate,” as, for lack of a better word, these overpopulated, overmoderated, your-time-is-up Q & A panels are called. Two cycles ago it was zero debates. This time around, it’s—already!—eight.

The New Yorker is dated August 20th, which is tomorrow, so I don't know if they counted today's brunch snooze.

And for all of you citizens who represent the 99% of the country who are not Iowans, brace yourself for more candidate Iowa fawning and its attendant disenfranching feeling, as it has only just begun!

the first major Democratic debate in Iowa and, for the contenders, perhaps the most important one as they approach Labor Day, the unofficial start of an intensive four months of campaigning until the nation's first caucuses here.

As another indication of how insane the primary system is, the NYT has its best political reporter, Adam Nagourney, camped out in Greenfield, Iowa, while the huge population bases in California and the North East Corridor get no attention.

It Is Time For a National Primary and For Iowa and NH Diner Patrons to Rediscover Their Place in Obscurity

Our current primary system causes candidates to focus their pitches on sparsely populated states that are not respresentative of the US population or its views. The current system is also disenfranchising for the bulk of the citizenry, who live in California and the North East corridor, as they watch old White men in VFW hats and their crocheting wives choose the primary candidate for the rest of us, who happen to form the vast majority of the popular vote.

Iowa has a little under 3 million residents and New Hampshire 1.3 million, while New York City alone has 8.2 million residents and California 36.5 million. Common sense would indicate that the primary candidates focus on the large population centers, but our staggered primary system makes that impossible if they are going to have any chance to win.

The disenfranchisement of most of the US population is real and not a good thing. Which resident of a big state or metropolitan area hasn't wondered why the candidates spend all of their time courting customers of small-town diners and eating cherry pie yet completely ignore the majority of the country?

Here is a radical idea: hold the presidential primary the same day in every state. In such a framework candidates would focus their energy and messages to a much broader range of voters and everyone on primary day would feel that his or her vote mattered.